Gallardo Extension a Risky Move

Written by Jaymes Langrehr on .

MLB: Phillies vs Brewers OCT 5

And here I thought I'd be struggling to find something to write about on the Brewers' first off day of the season.

If you haven't heard by now -- and chances are you have -- the Brewers are announcing that they're giving Yovani Gallardo a long-term extension that will not only give Yo a pay bump this season and lock in his salary throughout his arby years, but will also buy out at least one year of free agency (possibly two, if an option is exercised).  He'll be guaranteed at least $30.1 million over 5 years, according to reports, and could be worth as much as $42.5 million over 6 years if the option is picked up.

A lot of people are ecstatic about this.  I'm actually having mixed feelings.

Is it good news that the Brewers will be keeping their budding ace in town long-term?  Absolutely.  Brewer fans can rest easy knowing that in a couple years, we won't have to worry about reliving what we're currently going through with Prince Fielder.  It's also conveniently timed after Yankees president Randy Levine whined about small-market teams not using revenue sharing money to keep their own players.  It's good for fan and player morale.

But it's also an incredibly risky investment that could easily backfire.  Doug Melvin has a spotty history with being pre-emptive and signing players to extensions -- I give you the contracts of Brady Clark, Derrick Turnbow, and Bill Hall, for example.  It's not just Melvin's spotty decision making, though, because it's pretty obvious that Gallardo has done more to earn the money that will be coming his way (David posted the details earlier today).

My concern is rooted in the fact that pitchers get hurt.  Frequently.  A lot more frequently than position players, which is why I don't think you can compare this extension to signing Ryan Braun long-term.  The extension given to Ben Sheets years ago sure seemed like a great idea at the time, but we saw what could happen.

I touched on this awhile back when rumors of a Gallardo extension first started to come up.  I still have the worries I had a month ago: the benefits just don't outweigh the risks enough to justify giving big money to him right now, especially since he's under team control through 2013, anyway.  At the time I said I could live with a short extension -- two, maybe three years that buy out his arbitration years at a rate that would give the Brewers a small discount.

Granted, the terms that were announced could have been worse (it seems like the team may have gotten a discount due to Gallardo missing so much time in 2008).  But there's enough money backloaded -- $19 million combined in the last two guaranteed years -- to make me nervous.  Who knows...maybe I'm just a Debbie Downer that's grown to expect the worst when it comes to the health of our young pitchers.

Feel free to share your thoughts on the deal in the comments, or talk to us on Twitter @BrewersBar.

Brewers Extend Gallardo

Written by David Hannes on .

The Brewers will announce a 5-year, $30.1 million guaranteed contract extension for 24 year-old ace Yovani Gallardo at 3 p.m. CT, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and the AP:

$  500,000 salary in 2010 (an additional $50,000 from his original contract) +

$  500,000 signing bonus when contract is approved by MLB +

$  500,000 bonus on July 15, 2010 +

$  250,000 bonus on November 15, 2010 +

$ 3,250,000 in 2011 (what would have been the first year of arbitration) +

$ 5,500,000 in 2012 +

$ 7,750,000 in 2013 +

$11,250,000 in 2014 +

an option for $13,000,000 in 2015...or a $600,000 buyout

Gallardo would represent only the third Brewer player contract beyond 2011 (Randy Wolf and Ryan Braun are the other two).

Positives include knowing exactly what you will be paying for your top pitcher in each of those years, plus buying out the first two years of free agency eligibility (and also ensuring that Doug Davis will never wear number '49' again for the Crew).  A likely positive, too, is saving money from what you might have had to spend if Gallardo were to win 20 games or win the Cy Young award.

The potential negative, however, is overpaying what the market would have gotten you in a free agent.  Obviously, Melvin must think the market for ace pitchers will be rather slim and expensive over the next few years, and is willing to gamble on a pitcher that has only pitched a complete season in just one of his three years in the majors.

The above figures, however, will likely represent a bargain for the Brewers' if Gallardo pitches as well as everyone expects (read: "hopes").  Certainly, $11.25 million in 2014 is probably going to be a better value for the Brewers' owners than, say, a $12.5 million in 2010 dollars for a #5 starter struggling to keep his ERA below 5.00.

Game 3: Brewers Bail Out Davis, Steal Win

Written by Jaymes Langrehr on .

WP: Todd Coffey (1-0)
LP: Aaron Cook (0-1)
SV: Trevor Hoffman (2)

HR: Miguel Olivo (1)

Talk about stealing a series win.

Doug Davis struggled early on, throwing 40 pitches in the first inning and putting the Brewers in an early 3-0 hole.  Davis walked three batters in the first inning and didn't retire a Rockie until he struck out Ian Stewart on a foul tip (Stewart was the 6th batter of the inning).  Double D settled down after that, giving up only a flukey pop-up homer to Miguel Olivo that went off the webbing of Ryan Braun's glove over the left field fence.  The rough first inning wore on Davis, though, as he was only able to make it through 4+ innings, and was replaced by Todd Coffey after surrendering a leadoff double in the 5th inning.

The bullpen was lights-out from there, allowing only 2 hits in the next 5 innings and working out of a jam in the 7th inning.  The 1-2 combo of LaTroy Hawkins and Trevor Hoffman worked to perfection again, and Hoffman was able to effortlessly nail down career save #593.

Credit has to go to the Brewers' offense after crawling back into the game without the use of the longball.  Alcides Escobar got the Brewers on the board with an RBI double after George Kottaras got on base thanks to an error by Jason Giambi committed with two outs.  Kottaras brought in the second Brewers run in the 4th inning on a groundout that allowed Jim Edmonds to score, and Rickie Weeks continued his hot hitting with an RBI single the following inning to cut the deficit to 4-3.

The rally was completed the next inning, as the Brewers tied it at 4 on a sac fly by Kottaras, and took the lead the very next at-bat by way of a Jody Gerut pinch-hit RBI double.

Carlos Gomez went 0-for-3, making him 0-for-7 since starting the season 4-for-5.  So that's why we can't get too excited about early season performance, huh?

The 5-4 win gives the Brewers their first series win of the season, and stealing a game like this is sure to pump some confidence into this team heading into a weekend series against the Cardinals.  You have to feel bad for the Rockies, though, who didn't really deserve to start the season 1-2.  Sure, it was only 3 games, but I can see why so many people were high on them in their preseason picks -- they can really hit, and their pitching isn't bad at all.  I feel lucky that the Brewers were able to pull out wins the past two days.

It's almost enough to make me forget that Jeff Suppan will be the team's 5th starter.  Talk about a bittersweet day.

Thursday is an off-day, but I'll have a series preview for the Cardinals.

Suppan Will Be Fifth Starter

Written by Jaymes Langrehr on .

Well, we got our hopes up for nothing.  Ken Macha announced this morning that Jeff Suppan will be joining the team as the fifth starter when he returns from the disabled list, and is expected to start next week against the Cubs.  Just a few quick thoughts on this:

- Aside from the salary, does Jeff Suppan have dirty photos of Ken Macha somewhere?
- Who does Chris Narveson have to kill to be considered for a rotation spot?
- Macha is aware that the Cubs are probably the worst team for Suppan to come back against, right?  The last time I checked, Derrek Lee's OPS against Suppan was Pujols-esque.

The only possible way this makes sense is if the Brewers are setting Suppan up to fail, so he can pitch his way out of the rotation.  If that was the case, you could argue he's been pitching his way out of the rotation since the beginning of spring training.

This was the worst case scenario from the start, and it's pretty clear now that there never was any real competition for the last spot in the rotation.  If there was a competition, Suppan would've finished dead last in the three-way race.  For once, I find myself agreeing with a lot of the comments in the JSOnline blog post, and to me, that's the scariest thing of all about this.

I'm not one to log on to throw up a vent post -- especially this early in the season -- but this is just ridiculous.

Edit: Updated with Macha's comments:

"I don't think if he was in the bullpen, (the salary) would matter," said Macha. "He's going to be one of the 12 pitchers."

Except he did nothing to earn being one of the 12 pitchers, let alone top 12 starters in the organization.

"We could have a number of No. 5 starters over the course of the year," said Macha. "Right now, we're going in this direction. Production will be a big part of it."

If production will be a big part of deciding whether Suppan stays in the rotation or not, why wouldn't production be a big part of deciding to give him the rotation spot in the first place?  His production -- or lack thereof -- in the spring didn't warrant him getting the job.

"There are a couple of things you can look at," said Macha.  "Suppan was our lead guy out last year. Now, he's not in a situation where he's No. 1 against the other team's No. 1."

Yeah, because that was his problem last year, being matched up with another team's ace.  That's why he walked more batters in 2009 than he had since 2000, posted a WHIP of 1.695, and coughed up 25 homers.  That's why his ERA+ was a horrific 76.  I'm sure it was just the fact that he was going up against another team's ace, and not the fact that he was one of the worst starters in baseball last year.

"You could make a case for all three guys."

No.  No, you really couldn't.  It should have come down to Parra and Narveson, but it's pretty clear now that Macha never really considered anyone but Suppan.

Game 2: Wolf Solid in Brewers Debut

Written by Jaymes Langrehr on .

WP: Randy Wolf (1-0)
LP: Greg Smith (0-1)
SV: Trevor Hoffman (1)

HR: Casey McGehee (1), Rickie Weeks (1), Ian Stewart (2)

At last, our longtime state-wide nightmare is over -- the Brewers have defeated the Colorado Rockies after seven straight losses.

Randy Wolf made his Brewers debut, and after a rough first two innings in which he gave up a run apiece, he settled down nicely to get credit for his first Brewers win.  He allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6.2 innings of work, but struck out 8 Rockies and didn't walk anyone. Frankly, if he pitches like this every night, it'll be $30 million pretty well spent.

He wasn't the only new face to make his Brewer debut tonight, as LaTroy Hawkins made a good first impression as the team's new set-up man.  He was about as dominant as you could be in one inning's worth of work, striking out the first and third batters of the 8th inning, and making a nice play on a ball hit up the middle in between.

The Brewers gave Trevor Hoffman a couple of insurance runs in the bottom of the 8th, and it's a good thing they did.  Hoffman got off to a shaky start in his first appearance of the year, allowing a triple to Ian Stewart.  Stewart eventually scored, but Hoffman was able to stop the damage there to pick up career save #592.

Offensively, Casey McGehee provided a bulk of the offense with a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 1st inning after it seemed like Colorado starter Greg Smith didn't want anything to do with Prince Fielder.  Fielder showed great patience at the plate all night, drawing a second walk while going 2-for-2 with a double and 3 runs scored.

Carlos Gomez cooled off considerably after a hot Opening Day, going 0-for-4 with a strikeout.  Alcides Escobar also continued to struggle, although he did pick up his first hit and RBI of the season in the 8th inning.

The rubber game of this opening series will be an afternoon game, so there's a good chance we'll see George Kottaras make his Brewers debut tomorrow, giving Gregg Zaun a day off behind the plate.