I don't know about you, but for me that's a shockingly low number and if you're into that whole betting thing it's a decent bet to make on the over for sure. Even a bit more shocking to me is where Vegas sees the Central Division as a whole. Both Cincinnati and St. Louis are ahead of the Brewers with an o/u of 87.5 wins.
For me it's interesting to see the affects of losing big time players on St. Louis and Milwaukee between last year and this year. According to the same site last year the Brewers o/u was set at 84.5 and the Cardinals number was 87.5 wins. We all know how the season ended with Milwaukee crushing that o/u number at 96 wins and the Cardinals barely getting over their number with 90 wins.
So, what does all of that mean for the numbers in 2012? Well with St. Louis sitting at the same win total for their over/under it means they don't think the loss of Albert Pujols will be anything of signifigance and in fact are a favorite to win the division.
Yet the Brewers lose just one major player off their roster from last season in Prince Fielder and somehow they are going to lose about 15 more games from last year to this year? Call me crazy but I don't see it happening, even if (when) Ryan Braun gets the word he's out for 50 games. We upgraded at both short stop (defensively) and third base (both offensively and defensively) and our rotation hasn't changed from last season and in fact we may even be better off this season with a healthy Zack Grienke for a full season, just don't ask him about his contract situation though.
But in all seriousness, I'd love for you to show me how losing Prince translates to 15 more losses in 2012 and losing Albert does nothing to lessen the chances of a lower season for the Cards? It makes no sense whatsoever. Especially when you look at the rosters of these two teams.
What did Milwaukee do to try and replace the numbers put up by Prince? They went out and got a slugging third baseman in Aramis Ramirez and are taking a gamble on a decent pop from Matt Gamel at 1st base.
St. Louis on the other hand? They are going with Lance Berkman at first base and their best players in the lineup outside of Matt Holliday are all huge injury risks. Add in the fact that they are getting Adam Wainwright back from Tommy John surgery and there are plenty of question marks as to how good this team really will be without Tony "I Threw at Braun Intentionally" LaRussa at the helm.
Cincy on the other hand I have no problem with, that rotation has the potential to be completely dominant and is flying totally under the radar. The lineup isn't bad at all either, especially if Joey Votto can duplicate the numbers he put up in 2011 (.314 avg., 29HR's, and 108RBI's).
Call me crazy if you want, but give me the under for the Cards on 87.5 wins and give me the Brewers for the over on 81.5 wins, I just see these two teams' fortunes going in different directions right now, one is old and getting older and the other is younger and getting more experienced, I like those odds better.
As for the over unders for all teams...give me the over for all 3, please. I think both the Cards and Brewers will easily beat theirs while Cinci should be able to scrape by theirs. Honestly, I think the Cardinals are a better team than they were last year, possibly by a lot.
I was going to point out the difference between the 2011 W/L and the pythag...but someone beat me to it. That's the main thing I would point too. Beyond that, though, the main thing to remember is that these aren't necessarily where the guys actually think the Brewers will finish. It's where they think they can get roughly equal betting on both sides, thus ensuring them a profit no matter what happens. At least I think that's the way it works.
"We upgraded at shortstop... our rotation hasn't changed... we may even be better off.."
You work for the Brewers?
@fevankeyzi convenient you left out the fact I said defensively at shortstop. You can't seriously think Gonzalez isn't an upgrade at shortstop, can you? If so I'd love to hear your argument. I'd argue there were at least 3 or 4 games last season that Yuni B's errors costs us alone.
@andycoppens Wow, you missed my point by a mile
Hey guys, awesome to see the discussion. Just thought I'd butt in with some quick numbers. If you have trouble following this, don't hesitate to ask.
The Brewers had a Pythagorean record of 90-72 last year. If we look at the WAR of the guys going in and out, we can add and subtract that to look at what the 2012 squad might roughly look like. Using this quick-and-dirty method, the Brewers - Prince - Yuni - McGehee + A Ram + Sea Bass - 2 wins (a dummy for the Braun suspension) would be at around 87-75. So, yeah, 81.5 wins seems pretty low to me, too.
@fevankeyzi thanks for posting your feedback, we highly encourage it and keep at the sarcasm, i personally am that way as well!!
@andycoppens fair enough. I agree with your points though
@fevankeyzi nah, I got it, just giving you a hard time back... sorry, lame attempt I guess.